21 se 29 October 2025 ke downfall ke baad Gold recovery mode me tha aur 16 December tak market apne recent high ke kaafi paas aa chuki thi.
Is din maine market ko higher timeframe se dekh kar ye analysis banayi.
Ye analysis live market ke dauran ki gayi thi, hindsight ke baad nahi.
Drone View:
Daily timeframe par mujhe lag raha tha ki market ek aur candle niche bana sakta hai.Ye sirf S-R / R-S structure ke basis par ek possibility thi, confirmation nahi.
Drone view ke baad maine Street View ke liye 5 minute timeframe dekha.
Street view:
Drone View ke hisaab se mujhe lag raha tha ki market pehle thoda niche aa sakti hai, isi expectation ke saath maine 5 minute chart dekha to maine paaya ki market 16 december ki shuruat me pahle buyer’s k SL ko banaya aur fir use hit kiya jisse market me ek baar bearish trend shuru ho gya iske pichhe ka reason buyer’s k SL hit hona aur naye sellers ki entry ka hona tha. Is movement ke baad mujhe lag raha tha ki immediate downside (4272 price level k niche) limited ho sakta hai lekin upar me seller’s k SL available ho chuke the. Is stage par mujhe lag rha tha ki upar sellers ke SL available hone ki wajah se upside attempt possible ho skta hai, lekin is view me conviction full nahi tha. Is wajah se mujhe ye bhi doubt that ki agar upside attempt fail hota hai, to market niche ke remaining SLs ki taraf bhi ja sakti hai. Is possibility ko dhyaan me rakh kar maine downside risk ko completely ignore nahi kiya.
What I Was Observing:
My Expectation:
Ab market k paas na niche SL available h aur na hi upar. Lekin market k Drone view ke hisaab se mujhe lag raha tha ki agar market thoda aur retrace karti hai (4200 ke aas-paas), to wahan se upside attempt possible ho sakta hai. Ye ek scenario tha, certainty nahi.
Decision:
Is analysis ke baad maine koi real trade nahi liya.
Agar future me entry hoti bhi, to wo sirf demo amount par hoti kyunki conviction abhi complete nahi tha.
Learning:
Is analysis se mujhe ye samajh aaya ki sirf SL logic kaafi nahi hota jab tak higher timeframe aur intraday structure align na kare.
Isi wajah se maine trade avoid kiya.